By James Park
Miami’s pre-construction condominium market posted its strongest first quarter on record in 2025, with net absorption of approximately 1,420 units across active projects in Miami-Dade County. This represents a 28% increase over Q1 2024 and occurred against the backdrop of persistently elevated mortgage rates — a combination that has surprised many national real estate observers but reflects dynamics that are fundamentally different in the Miami market.
The conventional wisdom — that elevated interest rates suppress real estate demand — applies primarily to markets driven by domestic mortgage-dependent buyers. Miami’s pre-construction market operates on a different axis. The majority of purchases in Miami’s most active pre-construction projects are cash transactions from Latin American, European, and domestic investors who are not rate-sensitive in the traditional sense. They are purchasing in USD as a capital preservation strategy, a hedge against local currency devaluation, or as part of an EB-5 or international wealth management structure.
Our buyer registration data confirms this: approximately 64% of VIP registrations in Q1 2025 originated from outside the United States, led by Brazil (22%), Argentina (16%), Colombia (11%), and Mexico (9%). Domestic registrations were led by New York (18%), California (12%), and Illinois (6%).
Brickell: Remains Miami’s most active pre-construction submarket. 420 units absorbed in Q1, with average pricing of $1,247 per square foot — a 6.8% year-over-year increase. Pipeline includes 3 towers currently in active sales and 2 scheduled to launch in Q2.
Edgewater: 310 units absorbed, driven by its waterfront position at a lower price point than Brickell. Average pricing of $895 PSF. The neighborhood’s profile with younger international buyers continues to strengthen as transit connectivity improves.
Wynwood: 180 units absorbed, reflecting its relatively limited residential pipeline. The conversion of Wynwood from pure arts/retail to mixed residential is still in early stages, but the pricing trajectory has been exceptional: average PSF was $825 in 2022 and is now $1,104.
Downtown Miami / Arts & Entertainment: 280 units absorbed. The conversion of office-to-residential and the ongoing development of Miami Worldcenter continue to attract buyers seeking urban walkability.
Sunny Isles Beach / North Beaches: 230 units absorbed. Ultra-luxury projects dominate — the floor on meaningful product here is now firmly above $2M per unit.
Across all active Miami pre-construction projects, average asking PSF pricing increased 4.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025. Developer confidence is high: we are aware of three major launches planned for Q2 and Q3 2025 that will collectively bring approximately 1,800 units to market across Brickell, Edgewater, and Midtown.
Our 2025 base case calls for continued absorption of 1,200–1,500 units per quarter, with pricing appreciation of 8–12% for the full year in most submarkets. The primary risk to this forecast is a significant escalation of geopolitical instability that disrupts Latin American capital flows — which would be a meaningful headwind given the market’s structural dependency on international demand.
Register free — VIP pricing before public launch.